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摘 要：根据小清河黄台桥、岔河和羊角沟水文站1970—2010年逐年来水量资料及其雨量站的降水量数据，运用5a滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall非参数检验法，分析了小清河来水量和降水量的变化特征;在此基础上，利用Mann-Kendall突变检验法对小清河近40年来水量与降水量序列进行了突变点分析，并运用交叉小波变换（XWT）和小波相干谱（WTC）分析来水量与太阳黑子数的相互关系和周期变化特征。結果表明：小清河上游、中游和下游来水量的变化具有显著增加的趋势，后期来水量比前期更为丰富，变化程度也更趋稳定。而小清河上游和中游降水量的变化具有增加的趋势，下游降水量变化具有减少的趋势，但增加和减少趋势均不显著，降水量发生突变的时刻主要集中在90年代后期和21世纪初。通过小波分析得出，高能量区，小清河来水量与太阳黑子的共振周期约为8～10a。低能量区，小清河来水量与太阳黑子显示出2a左右的年际变化，但是显著性水平有所不同。小清河流域来水量的变化主要是由降水流和人类活动引起，随着沿岸地区的发展，来水量与降水径流的相关性逐渐减小，人类活动主要通过兴建水库、干流工农业用水等活动逐渐增大对来水量的影响，成为影响来水量变化的主导因素。
关键词：小清河;来水量;降水量;太阳黑子;人类活动
中图分类号 P333 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-7731（2019）22-0078-07
Study on the Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Inflow of Water in Xiaoqing River
Song Renchao1 et al
（1College of Geography and Environment，Shandong Normal University，Jinan 250358，China）
Abstract：In this paper，the data of annual water quantity and precipitation data of Huangtai Bridge，Cha he and Yangjiaogou Hydrological stations from 1970 to 2010 in Shandong Province are used. The variation characteristics of the incoming and precipitation of Xiaoqing River are analyzed by using the 5-year moving average method and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method. On this basis，the Mann-Kendall mutation test method is used to analyze the abrupt point of the precipitation sequence of Xiaoqing River in the last 40 years.Cross Wavelet Transform （XWT） and wavelet coherence spectrum （WTC） are used to analyze the relationship between water quantity and sunspot number and the characteristics of periodic variation.The results show that： the upper reaches of Xiaoqing River is located in the upper reaches of Xiaoqing River. The variation of the inflow water in the middle and lower reaches has a significant increasing trend. In the later period，the amount of incoming water is more abundant than that of the earlier period，and the change degree is more stable. The change of precipitation in the upper and middle reaches of Xiaoqing River has an increasing trend，and the change of precipitation in the lower reaches has a decreasing trend. But the trend of increase and decrease is not significant. The abrupt change of precipitation occurred mainly in the late 90s and the beginning of 21th century. The wavelet analysis shows that the resonant period of the water coming from the Xiaoqing River and the sunspot is about 8～10 a in the high energy area. In the low energy area，the amount of water coming from the Xiaoqing River and the sunspots show an interannual variation of 2a，but the saliency level is different. The change of the inflow of water in Xiaoqing River Basin is mainly caused by precipitation runoff and human activities. With the development of the coastal area，the correlation between the inflow of water and the runoff of precipitation gradually decreases. Human activities are mainly through the construction of reservoirs，and the activities of water use for industry and agriculture in the main stream are gradually increasing. The influence of water amount has become the main factor to influence the change of incoming water quantity.